Experts Agree 2023 Likely to Bring Slowdown. But Will It Be a Soft Landing or a Crash?
January 5, 2023
- Author
- Jay Pfeifer
The experts agree, 2022 was a strange year for the economy.
GDP was up while unemployment hovered close to 3%. Nevertheless, Wall Street had its worst year since 2008 and inflation pumped up prices. At the start of the new year, the Fed walks a tightrope as they attempt to cool the economy without smothering it.
A panel of economic experts led by moderator Tony Mecia, editor of , discussed the upcoming year during an hour-long Zoom webinar. They all agreed that a slowdown is on the way.
But is the economy in for a soft landing, or will it crash? That was the real question.
'On The Edge of a Knife'
, chief investment officer for U.S. Bank Asset Management, said the combination of rising interest rates and the cycle of consumer spending is already causing the red-hot economy to cool.
鈥淲e do think we鈥檒l have a slowdown that will ultimately be termed a recession,鈥 Freedman said, 鈥淏ut we鈥檙e less concerned about how deep it gets than how long it will stay with us.
鈥淚f we use the analogy of a treadmill, the treadmill is probably at a five or six right now. And we think we鈥檒l get down to a three or four and stay that way a little longer."
Siobhan O鈥橩eefe, assistant professor of economics at 皇家华人, says the economy is 鈥渙n the edge of a knife.鈥 A small slowdown is all it may take to get inflation under control.
But it鈥檚 also possible that the recent interest rate increases have not yet stymied swelling prices.
鈥淭he labor market has continued to be more robust than expected,鈥 she said. 鈥淭he pessimistic part of me says this may force the Fed to raise interest rates more and they may go too far, and that may cause a deeper, more traumatic recession than anyone would like.鈥
Housing Market Will Drive Economy聽
One major indicator all of the panelists are watching is housing.
, senior personal finance reporter for Insider, expects the uncertainty of the upcoming year will cause consumers to put off big purchases鈥搇ike new houses.
鈥淲hen the housing market starts to suffer, it indicates that every other sector is going to start suffering at some point,鈥 she said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a harbinger for what鈥檚 coming down the road.鈥
, markets correspondent for Axios, pointed to declining rents that may portend a turnaround for the stock market, which was battered in 2022.
鈥淩ents have been falling consistently over the last few months,鈥 Phillips said. 鈥淭hat takes a while to feed into the official government numbers but if rents continue to decline, that would help decrease inflation and help the stock market.鈥
Inflation Still A Question Mark
Phillips also pointed out that inflation already seems to be heading the right way.
鈥淲e peaked at 9% in June and we鈥檙e down to 7% right now. That鈥檚 not insignificant,鈥 he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 still crazy compared to where we鈥檝e been over the past 30 years but if it continues to come down, that may be a reason for optimism in the stock market.鈥
Inflation may be trending in the right direction, but all panelists agreed that the Fed is far from finished with interest rate hikes. That鈥檚 big macroeconomic news, of course, but both Phillips and Streaks pointed out that consumers should do one thing above all: save money.
鈥淏asically, the Fed is giving a signal to people that now is the time to save,鈥 Phillips said, pointing to rising interest rates in savings accounts and certificates of deposit.
Streaks urged consumers to prune their spending and set up automatic drafts to make sure they save regardless of the economic climate.
鈥淭he most important thing you can do,鈥 she said, 鈥渋s make saving a habit.鈥
Additional Coverage
The Charlotte Ledger,